Stats for Stacks - Nov 6th

Stacking on a short slate. Nothing like it!

The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.

Following the aforementioned rules, you could play a stack like yesterday’s Jaden Schwartz and Chandler Stephenson, whose odds were at +400 and it hit! Granted, I got killed on all the other plays specifically because one guy didn’t hit a point. The lull is kind of still going in the NHL, as teams get settled in and defenses do their thing, like with the Columbus Blue Jackets, who shot 50 times against the Sharks defense with Vanecek but only scoring once and, while Marchenko was the scorer for his points prop, Monahan didn’t assist on the goal.

Tonight, we have a short slate with 3 only games, which means being more dialed into the action. So, let’s dive in!

Play 1: Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals (7:00 PM EST)

Stack to play: Connor McMichael + Tom Wilson (+260 at Bet365)

I’m going to keep short and sweet.

One of the rules for the stacks is the correlation between the players’ lines and their power play usage. McMichael and Wilson fulfill that, playing on the PP1 and Washington’s second line.

However, that’s not the angle here because Washington’s power play is the worst in the league, converting only 10.8% clip. Their strength definitely lies playing 5v5, where they rank second behind the Vegas Golden Knights, with 34 goals. On the other side, Nashville ranks seventh-worst in goals allowed at even strength with 30.

Now, Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson, and Pierre-Luc Dubois have played together over a 100 minutes this season, and adjusting the scale for lines that have on the ice for that amount of time, they rank seventh in xGoals for per 60 minutes with 3.35. Their other advanced metrics rank them also in the top, as their Fenwick % puts them at fourth with 57.6%. That’s behind the Leafs’ line of Knies-Matthews-Marner, the Sabres’ line of Peterka-Thompson-Tuch, and the Blue Jackets’ combination of Chinakov-Monahan-Marchenko.

Play 2: Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers (8:30 PM EST)

Stack to play: Tomas Hertl + Pavel Dorofeyev (+300 at Bet365)

This one is more of a value play than advanced metrics play, given that I think the books are still undervaluing these guys. They play together on the second line and on the first power play unit with all-star players Mark Stone and Jack Eichel and, while the angle on the first play wasn’t the man advantage, in this case it definitely is.

The Vegas Golden Knights are the second highest scoring team in the league with 4.50 GF/GP. Their power play is ranked third with a 32.3%. Their opponents, the Edmonton Oilers, have the worst penalty kill in the league, only killing 60.0% of their opponents chances.

By the same token and, like I mentioned in the previous play, the Golden Knights are the team that have scored the most goals at even strength with 40 and, while Jack Eichel and Mark Stone lead their team in points, with 16 and 20 respectively, Dorofeyev and Hertl are no slouches either, having 10 and 12 points, with the Russian actually leading their team in goals scored.

Their advanced metrics, because I do have to mention them, tells us that Dorofeyev, Hertl and Howden have an xGoals for per 60 of 3.26, higher than the line of Stone, Eichel and Barbashev. Their Fenwick% 51.8 where as the latter’s is 48.8% which, among other things, may explain the difference in xGoals for per 60.

On top of that, we add the performance of Stuart Skinner, who has a 3-4 record with an .881 save percentage and a 3.31 GAA. His expected stats don’t paint him in a better picture, as his Goals Saved Above Expected is -3.7, joining the ranks of other tenders like Daniil Tarasov, Alexander Georgiev and, Connor Ingram which are not ranks you want to be.

While he could get better and the Oilers’ penalty kill can improve, against a high-scoring team like Vegas? I don’t think so.

Not yielding against this sort of scoring decrease we’re going through. Stacks!