Stats for Stacks - Nov 27th
Off for a little while with work. Now, I'm back! And... The stacks are back!
The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop (with some occasional changes to assists) bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.
The NHL is not having any games on American Thanksgiving, which means a massive slate for Wednesday, November 27 with 15 games on the card and several spots to attack it. I have several plays on my card, but there are two, as usual, that I’m most confident in. The theme of the night for these plays is basic beating up on bad teams.
The drill is the same, so let’s get to it.
Play 1: New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes (7:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Sebastian Aho assist + Seth Jarvis o0.5pt (+190 at Bet365)
There are several ways you can bet on this game and for me, a Rangers fan, are all against the Broadway Blueshirts.
They’re in a terrible place right now and I don’t think they’ve hit rock bottom yet. After their trip to Alberta, Canada went as bad as you can imagine, with losses against the Calgary Flames where they were outshot 20-5 in the first period and allowed 49 shots total, they followed that up with an astounding 6-2 loss against the Edmonton Oilers where they, again, allowed 40 shots and, at the end, McDavid looked like he was toying with them.
That loss sparked news from sources around the team about guys like Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider and others potentially being on the trading block. They came back to MSG, and if anyone thought they were going to play better, they had another thing coming. Laying an egg is basically the perfect summary for Monday’s game against the St. Louis Blues where shots were they couldn’t block shots and the Blues put five past them in yet another night where over 40 shots was the norm for that defense.
Now, the Rangers are traveling to Carolina to face the best team in the month of November, the Hurricanes. Sporting a GF/GP of 4.38 (1st), a power play converting at 28.6% (4th), and Shots/GP of 33.2 (3rd), the Canes come into this game with a 9-3 record and 57 goals scored (most throughout the month).
Much like the Oilers, the Hurricanes are a fast team. According to NHL EDGE, they are in the 96 percentile of Top Skating Speed (mph) with 24.19 (league average is 23.37) and the 93 percentile of Speed Bursts Over 20mph with 560 (league average is 466.6). They’re also in the 99 percentile of offensive zone time with 47.2% (league average is 41.7%). Comparatively, the New York Rangers are in the 90 percentile of Top Skating Speed (mph) with 23.99, but they’re below the 50 percentile in all others.
Additionally, this will be Seth Jarvis’ second game back. He’s only played 14 games after sustaining an injury on Nov. 9 against the Colorado Avalanche, but he’s already back like he never left. He scored twice against Dallas in their 6-4 win on Monday, with both of them being assisted by the other piece in this play, Sebastian Aho. Talking about the Finnish player, he’s had an assist in three of his last five games, and with his buddy back on the top line, he can definitely get another one tonight.
You can also play Svechnikov o0.5pt with Martin Necas to assist at +155 as Necas is the leading points scorer for Carolina with 35 points (12 goals, 23 assists) and Svechnikov is third with 18 points (8 goals, 10 assists), but I like the value more in the Jarvis + Aho pairing.
Play 2: Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets (7:30 PM EST)
Stack(s) to play:
Yegor Chinakov + Adam Fantilli (+240 at Bet365) riskier/PP2
and/or
Kirill Marchenko + Sean Monahan (+125 at Bet365) safer/PP1
Last few games for Columbus have been fun. They just have.
Other than a dud against coincidentally the Canadiens in a 5-1 defeat on Nov. 16, the Blue Jackets have scored 22 goals in their other four games of the last five. That’s an average of 5.50!
The return of Kent Johnson has certainly helped, but this team is getting goals and generating chances from all lines, plus they have one of the better offensive defensemen in Zach Werenski, who has 20 points (6 goals, 14 assists).
Throughout the month of November, the stats don’t paint a good picture for the Blue Jackets, as they’re middle of the pack in GF/GP as well as power play percentage. Actually, the first six games of the month were a bad spell for Columbus, as they went on a road trip out west where they couldn’t score more than two goals in each of those games. Their recent form has turned that into better averages, and I’m banking precisely on that.
For today, the projected lines according to beat reporter for the team Jeff Svoboda, have Chinakov - Fantilli - Johnson, three young players and first round draft picks with more than enough talent to produce chances and goals for this team. Their recent form is a testament to this, with Chinakov having points in three of his last five, Fantilli in two of his last five and Johnson being the most in form of the three, with two points in each of his past two games.
Tonight, they’re facing a Montreal Canadiens team that’s going in net with their worst goalie of the tandem in Cayden Primeau who has played in eight games (started in five) and posts a .842 Sv% and a 4.59 GAA.
Throughout this month, the Habs have had two bright defensive spots where they’ve only allowed one goal, but other than that, in most of their games the opposing team has scored three or more goals. Additionally, they’re down their best defenseman in Mike Matheson, who is near the top amongst their defensemen in TOI/GP, Blocks and Takeaways.
Other plays
These are stacks I’ve also played at lower units, as I’m not necessarily in love with the plays:
Teuvo Teravainen + Ryan Donato o0.5pt (+375 at Bet365)
Macklin Celebrini + William Eklund o0.5pt (+200 at Bet365)
Kyle Connor + Mark Scheifele + Gabriel Vilardi o0.5pt (+200 at Bet365)
Matty Beniers + Jared McCann + Andre Burakovsky o0.5pt (+500 at Bet365)
Mason Marchment + Matt Duchene o0.5pt (+150 at Bet365)
Elias Pettersson + Jake DeBrusk o0.5pt (+165 at Bet365)
Yegor Sharangovich + Matt Coronato o0.5pt (+300 at Bet365)
Good luck!