Stats for Stacks - Nov 21st
It's Thursday. You know what that means.
The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop (with some occasional changes to assists) bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.
If what I’m hearing and reading is correct, the stacks do not have much time. Apparently, Draftkings has banned stacking lines and betting on them or something like that. If true and other sportsbooks follow suit, it would be the end of the Stats for Stacks column, other than being repurposed for DFS angles.
However, tonight we don’t have to worry about it, because they can still be bet on other apps and although, the past few nights have been rough for my selections, there are still some opportunities and angles to be played on.
The 10-game slate for tonight is as follows:
Utah Hockey Club at Boston Bruins (7:00 PM EST)
Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators (7:00 PM EST)
New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings (7:00 PM EST)
Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils (7:00 PM EST)
Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals (7:00 PM EST)
Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 PM EST)
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues (8:00 PM EST)
Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks (8:30 PM EST)
New York Rangers at Calgary Flames (9:00 PM EST)
Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers (10:00 PM EST)
You know the drill. Let’s get right into business.
Play 1: Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators (7:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Drake Batherson + Tim Stützle (+120 at Bet365)
I’m very cautious of “back to the well” angles, mainly because I don’t like to repeat the same guys over and over as streaks end and guys you thought were hot can get cold in an instant.
Having said that, in this spot, I like Batherson and Stützle to continue to deliver. Based on Daily Faceoff lineups, Sens head coach Travis Green has done a shuffle, grouping Brady Tkachuk with the two guys I’m playing tonight and that just means more offensive firepower to this line.
That trio leads Ottawa in points; Stützle has 22 points (8 goals, 14 assists), Tkachuk has 20 points (9 goals, 11 assists) and Batherson has 17 points (7 goals, 10 assists). This core is also a part of the first unit power play, which is on the ice usually for 45% of the time when Ottawa has a man-up and, on situations like this, the Senators convert 26.7% of their chances, ranking them as the sixth best unit in the league.
The matchup in that regard is on the extremes, because Ottawa is the team that draws the third most penalties per 60 with 4.37, while Vegas is the team that takes the least amount of penalties at 2.41.
However, defensively, the Golden Knights are not the best team in the NHL. They’re allowing 28.3 shots per game, which is an average mark, but in the season overall, they’re the fourth worst team in allowing high danger scoring chances with 195 behind teams like Pittsburgh, Anaheim and San Jose; two of which are amongst the worst GA/GP teams in the league. Ottawa isn’t the best in creating those chances, but with that top line being that loaded and them needing the win after losing three straight, I can see Ottawa scoring a lot tonight which can also be evidenced by their team total being 3.5 at -110.
Goaltending wise, Ilya Samsonov is in net for Vegas, and his stats bode well for this play, as he’s started in six games this season and in four of those he has allowed 3 or more goals.
Play 2: Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals (7:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Jonathan Drouin o0.5pt + Nathan MacKinnon to assist (+150 at Bet365)
They’re back together!
MacKinnon and Drouin played together 485.4 minutes in 62 games last season and granted it was with Mikko Rantanen, but they loved to score.
Adjusting the time to lines that played that amount of time, they had an xGoals for per 60 of 3.55 and actual Goals for per 60 of 4.08. Their Fenwick was 56.4. In those categories at that amount of time, they ranked first in the first two and third in the last one.
They’re now playing with Artturi Lehkonen which was also a line last season and together they had a higher xGoals for per 60 at 3.97 and their Goals for per 60 was 6.22.
With whoever of the Finnish players head coach Jared Bednar grouped, MacKinnon and Drouin delivered. Obviously, it’s easy to be that good and post those number when you’re skating with arguably the best player in the league in MacKinnon, but that’s where we are.
I’m mainly talking about last season because this is Drouin’s third game back since his injury, so there might have been some rust there, as he hasn’t posted a point yet since his return. Now that he is on that top line and on PP1 with the other two big boys Makar and Rantanen, his point production can definitely go up.
As for the Nate Dogg himself, there’s not really much you can say. The guy is just unbelievable. He’s leading the league in points with 34 (7 goals, 27 assists), in terms of time on ice per game played, him and Lehkonen are two non-defenders with the highest averages and if we look at the NHL EDGE advanced metrics, the guy is above average on pretty much everything.
Washington is certainly good defensively, as they’re middle of the pack in allowing high danger and mid danger scoring chances as well as having good goaltending from both Charlie Lindgren and Logan Thompson —the latter is actually in net tonight— but if there’s a team that score on them it’s definitely the Avalanche.
Play 3: San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues (8:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Fabian Zetterlund + William Eklund each o0.5pts (+250 at Bet365)
You can get more risky than this and add Mikael Granlund for a +450 play in what is the The Lund Trifecta or The Lunds Parlay.
Funnily enough, they’re all correlated in the top line and in the first unit power play, and they’re not necessarily bad players. Both Eklund and Zetterlund have double digit points and they’re playing a ton of time each game.
Their advanced metrics would suggest them being overperforming, as they’re xGoals for per 60 is 2.35 while their Goals for per 60 is 4.08. They’re also ranked 31st in Fenwick with 53.3%. They’re not necessarily shooting much, but they’re not getting shots against either which, in the games I’ve seen is them having the puck on the offensive zone.
The angle of this play is more based on the Blues defense which is not the best. According to Natural Stat Trick, they’re fifth worst team in high danger chances against with 186 and the third worst in mid danger chances against with 294. They’re right there with the Penguins, the Golden Knights, the Ducks and coincidentally, the Sharks.
Teams have had success converting these chances against the Blues, as they’re third in high danger goals allowed with 25 and seventh in mid danger goals allowed with 15. This might be due to the play of the goaltender that’s in net for them tonight, Jordan Binnington. He has a GAA of 3.19 and a save percentage of .887% and NHL EDGE advanced stats tell us that on high danger shots his save percentage is .768 (league avg. is .809) and from mid-range it goes up to .896 (league avg. is .885).
Both these teams look to be more evenly matched that what the odds would say, and in that case, I rather take the better with two the Lund boys.