Stats for Stacks - Nov 19th

Tuesday Night Hockey and stacks. Much better than the shitshow that was Monday Night Football.

The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop (with some occasional changes to assists) bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.

The theme of the night for this Stats for Stacks is definitely that “occasional changes” to assists. There are some very interesting spots in the tonight’s games, but the points prop for some of the players are getting too expensive for the plays to be valuable, so I’m changing the approach for the top players in the stack to get an assist.

This Tuesday brings us a seven game slate, which sees the Oilers finishing their road trip over the East when they take on the Ottawa Senators, the Lightning facing the lowly Penguins, Wild and Blues in a Central division matchup, two Stanley Cup contenders in a rematch from a couple of days ago in the Jets and Panthers, Anaheim trying to get back-to-back wins against the ever-changing Chicago Blackhawks and, to close it out, the two New York teams going out West when the Islanders visit the Flames and the Rangers play against the Canucks.

You now know the drill, so let’s jump into the plays, shall we?

Play 1: Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins (7:00 PM EST)

Stack to play: Jake Guentzel assist + Brayden Point o0.5 pt (+200 at Bet365)

This is definitely the play I like the most and it is quite clearly because of the mismatch.

Tampa Bay comes from two good performances against very good teams; a 4-1 win against Winnipeg and 4-0 win against the New York Devils. They’re seventh in GF/GP with 3.56 and over the last 10 games, they haven’t scored less than three goals only three times.

The Bolts now welcome back Brayden Point, who has missed the past four games with a lower-body injury and you can make the case the injury initially affected them in terms of goal scoring, as the first two games after the injury were losses; 2-3 against the Blues and 1-2 in a shootout against the Flyers.

Point’s return also means a switch up of the lines, as he returns to his spot on the top line and Jake Guentzel also goes back to the top line which has the ninth points scorer in the league in Nikita Kucherov. This line is loaded with talent and together, they have recorded 138 minutes, with a 3.13 xGoals for per 60 and a Fenwick of 53.7%. Their actual goals for per 60 is 5.22.

They’re now facing the Pittsburgh Penguins and defensively, they’re horrible. Their goaltending has been bad with at least two of their goalies being in the bottom 25 in both GAA and save percentage. Tonight, the worst of their goalies has been confirmed with Tristan Jarry taking the net for Pittsburgh. His GAA is 5.36 and his save percentage is .847. Yikes!

Pittsburgh is also the third worst team in shots allowed per game, with 32.8. So, you have a bad goalie and a defense that allows a ton of shots. Talk about a recipe for disaster.

In terms of the play itself, Guentzel is recording over 20 minutes a game and he has 17 points total, with 7 goals and 10 assists. He’s a complete talent certainly with the capability to assist. Point on the other hand, even with the four missed games, he still has 13 points total, with 8 goals and 5 assists. So, a path is definitely there in which Point and Guentzel combine in a play to assist Kuch, or Guentzel assists Point for a goal and at that value, I’m certainly taking it.

Play 2: New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks (10:00 PM EST)

Stack to play: Artemi Panarin assist + Vincent Trocheck o0.5pt (+150 at Bet365)

This is a homer pick for me, as I’m a massive Rangers fan, but I definitely see the opportunity here for this play to hit.

First and foremost, head coach Peter Laviolette decided the experiment with Mika Zibanejad on the top line with Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere wasn’t really worth it, so the lines are back up to how they were last season and at the beginning of this season, which means Panarin and Laffy are back on the second line with Vincent Trocheck. Last season, that line killed having played the most amount of minutes in the NHL with 863.1 and recording a goals for per 60 of 3.75. Few lines played that many minutes with that kind of production.

One of the better things with this line is their ability to score 5v5. The Rangers over the past few years have been a team that’s mostly known for their elite power play, but with Laffy taking that next step into scoring production, this line was capable of doing some damage and they’re continuing that this season.

On the midst of the line changes, Vincent Trocheck was shuffled to the second and third lines, so his points are not really there yet. However, given his correlation with Panarin in both the line and in the power play, he should start getting points soon.

Tonight they’re facing a somewhat decimated Vancouver Canucks. Just this morning, they announced J.T. Miller taking a leave for personal reasons, Conor Garland is a game-time decision and this is a team that’s already without Brock Boeser. This means making up lines on the go, and the chemistry might not be there which can turn into more offensive zone time for the Rangers which can definitely lead into more scoring chances.

Added to that is the fact that the Canucks are going in net with Arthur Silovs. He was a sort of revelation at the end of last season and during the playoffs, but this year has been quite the opposite. He’s played in four games and is 0-4 with a save percentage of .850 and a GAA of 3.86. He’s been a bottom 10 goalie and the Rangers can capitalize on that.

Other plays to be considered

Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators (7:00 PM EST) - Drake Batherson/Tim Stützle o0.5pts each (+130 at Bet365) or Brady Tkachuk/Josh Norris o0.5pts each (+155 at Bet365)

Ottawa has been up and down in terms of scoring. In six of their last 10 games they’ve scored three or more goals. In the other four, they haven’t scored more than two. The angle here is similar to the Capitals’ plays, where these two stacks are lines one and two and all four are part of the power play which is sixth in the league and going up against the Oilers penalty kill, which is the second worst in the entire NHL.

Stützle and Batherson are first and third points for the Senators, respectively. The former has a total of 21 points; 7 goals and 14 assists, while the latter has 16 points; 7 goals and 9 assists. Tkachuk and Norris are second and fourth in points; Tkachuk with 9 goals and 10 assists for a total of 19 points while Norris has 7 goals and 5 assists for a total of 12 points. So, you can see how the offense pretty much runs through them, which means either combination can be a winning combination.

Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets (8:00 PM EST) - Aleksander Barkov assist + Sam Reinhart o0.5 point (+150 at Bet365)

The Panthers are cup contenders, and they’re not shying away from it. They’re picking up right where they left off last season as if no Stanley Cup hangover is affecting them. Over the last 10 games, they have an 8-2 record and in those 8 wins, only twice they haven’t scored more than three goals. That’s insane.

Leading the charge for these Panthers is Sam Reinhart who has 13 goals and 15 assists for 28 points. Tied in second place are Sam Bennett and Aleksander Barkov with 17 points, however, the Finnish man has 14 assists. Ever since he returned from injury on October 28th against the Sabres, he’s recorded at least one assist in each game, even in the games they lost against the Devils by scores of 2-6 and 1-4.

Even if they’re going against perennial Vezina candidate Connor Helleybuck, this Panthers offense is firing on all cylinders having the potential to score at even strength as they’re fourth in that category with 44 goals and having the 11th best power play unit of the NHL converting a little bit over 21%. What can help Florida, special teams wise, is that they’re drawing the 2nd most penalties per 60, with 4.62.