Stats for Stacks - Nov 18th
Just like I love a good stack of pancakes, I love me some good hockey stacks.
The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop (with some occasional changes to assists) bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.
After being away for the weekend —NFL Sunday, y’all— I’m back for some stacks action. There is a beautiful six-game slate tonight with some spots that we can take advantage.
In Beantown, the Blue Jackets get ready to face the Bruins in a game of two teams trying to figure things out. At the same time, the renewed Avalanche with the returns of Drouin and Nichushkin play the Flyers, a team that many could say are intriguing. 30 minutes later, a Canadian battle brews in Montreal as the Oilers travel to Quebec to face the Canadiens, then some Ducks get out of their pond to visit the Dallas Stars, the red-hot Capitals play against the Utah Hockey Club and, to close out the night, the Detroit Red Wings continue their trip out west entering the shark tank and facing San Jose.
You know the drill. Go into your sportsbook app, look for points prop of a game and then parlay the players I’m about to list. Example if you were into the Washington v Utah game: Aleksandr Ovechkin and Dylan Strome. Easy as that and, the plays are always plus money.
So, let’s jump right in.
Play 1: Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars (8:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Mason Marchment + Matt Duchene (+160 at Bet365)
Wow. This line!
They flew under my radar for these last couple of weeks and I’m sad for that, as they’ve been killing it, in both 5v5 and the power play and, they’re actually PP2, not PP1.
We quickly take a look at their advanced metrics, and we see they’ve played 117 minutes together and, in lines that have played more than 110 minutes (rounding the number), they rank eighth in xGoals for per 60 with 3.31. They’re Goals for per 60 is 3.57, so they’re right there with their expectancy, just a little above. So, it’s not like they’re overperforming their expectancy by much that you can say these guys shouldn’t be playing this well.
In their last three games, they’re the line that has played the most with 23.8% of ice time, over the 21% for the Dadonov-Hintz-Robertson line and the 19.3% for the Benn-Stankhoven-Johnston line. In this three game span, they have scored 4 goals at even strength with 30 shots for and 19 against. Their +/- is 2.
Power play wise, even though Marchment and Duchene —with Seguin and Johnston— are a part of the second power play unit, they’ve been on the ice 34.7% of the time with a man up, higher than the first unit combo of Benn-Hintz-Dadonov-Robertson. In the past three games, they’ve also scored two goals in four shots for. Granted, one of those games was against Pittsburgh who is atrocious defensively, but Marchment and Duchene also found themselves in the scoresheet against Boston in a game the Stars won 7-2 and Marchment found the net twice against a good defensive team in the Minnesota Wild.
Tonight, they face Anaheim. They are middle of the pack in terms of GA/GP with 3.13. However, they do have the third worst penalty kill, killing only 66.7% of their chances and they’re the team that faces the most shots per game; an average of 34.9. Expected to be in net today for the Ducks is Lukas Dostal, and in his last three starts he’s posted a save percentage of .865 against the Canucks where he allowed five goals in 37 shots, .839 against the Wild where he also allowed five in 31 shots and a .923 in three goals allowed in 39 shots against the Golden Knights.
So, he’s not necessarily a bad goalie but is kind of like case of the Rangers where they’re so bad defensively that the goaltender doesn’t get any help and the goals just fly in.
Play 2: Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks (7:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Raymond assist + Larkin point (+165 at Bet365)
Just as in the previous play, the angle here is piling up on bad teams defensively. The San Jose Sharks, while their penalty kill is surprisingly top 10 in the league with an 82.1% killing, they’re still bottom 10 in GA/GP as well as the second worst team in shots against per game, allowing 34.3.
Now, clearly the Red Wings are not world-beaters; they have the second worst shots for per game with only 25.1 and are the fifth worst team in GF/GP with only 2.47. However, what offense and goals the Red Wings can generate almost always goes through that top line of Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond.
The trio leads the Red Wings in points, Larkin having 13 total with 10 goals and 3 assists, while Raymond is the opposite, having 16 points total; 14 assists and 2 goals. That’s the basis of this play, Raymond being a part of the playmaking and Larkin finishing it.
Their advanced stats tell an underperforming narrative, with the line having a Goals for per 60 of 1.86 and an xGoals for per 60 of 2.88. Detroit also boasts the fourth best power play with a 29.8% conversion percentage and, together with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond spend more than 60% of the time on the ice when they’re a man up. So, even if it’s a good PK from the Sharks, I expect the Red Wings’ PP1 to crack them if they find themselves on the man advantage.
Other plays to be considered
Washington Capitals at Utah Hockey Club - Connor McMichael + Tom Wilson (+210 at Bet365)
They’re starting to adjust to McMichael’s form, as his points prop was -145 today. Tom Wilson’s remains the same, in +100 - +110 range. I’ll still take it given how well both guys and that entire Caps’ second line with Dubois is playing. They’ve played over 150 minutes together, and when adjusting the slider to that, they’re number one in xGoals for per 60 with 3.84, and third in actual Goals for per 60 with 4.72. A little bit overperforming, sure, but I don’t see a reason for a dip yet, especially given they’re going up against a Utah Hockey Club team that is average to bad in defense.
The Hockey Club has the eighth worst penalty kill with 75.4%, they’re the 10th worst team in GA/GP with 3.29 and they’re the 14th worst in shots against per game, with 29.5. In only three of their last 10 they’ve allowed less than three goals.
Personally, I’ve seen the Utah Hockey Club play, and they’re a team that likes to trade chances, with bodes well for this play because McMichael, Wilson and Dubois like to get to the net and they shoot a lot.
Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers - Sean Couturier + Travis Konecny (+165 at Bet365)
If you saw the image for this post, and didn’t think a Flyers’ play was coming, you have another thing coming.
I’m not particularly in love with this play, as coach John Tortorella likes to switch the lines within games at some point, so the guys you see starting may not end up playing together at the end. However, looking at time on ice per game, it’s clear that Couturier and Konecny are the two forwards that spend the most time on the ice.
This is a part of the angle for this play, as the more time they spend on the ice, the higher is the chance for them to do something. The other part is Konecny’s recent form and performance against the Avs. In the last five encounter against Colorado, Konecny has had a point in four and, in the Flyers’ past five games this season, he’s had at least a point in each.