Stats for Stacks - Nov 15th
I believe it was Rebecca Black that sang "It's Friday, Friday Gotta get stacks on Friday" Nope, she didn't?
The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.
In this case, I’m going to change things up a little, as one of the plays doesn’t have a points prop, but an assist prop. This is due to a smaller slate tonight, with only 5 games going and one that can be taken off the board between the Flames and the Preds given how low-scoring their offenses have been.
Asides that game in Calgary, the NHL is giving four games starting with the lowly Penguins and their quest to figure things out, the Capitals going to a revamped Colorado after a crushing defeat at home in OT against the Maple Leafs, the Mark Stone-less Vegas Golden Knights taking on the inspired Utah Hockey Club and the Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim to face the Ducks in another game that looks to be low-scoring.
Play 1: Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 PM EST)
Stack to play:
Yegor Chinakov + Adam Fantilli (+225 at Bet365) or
Kirill Marchenko + Sean Monahan (+155 at Bet365)
If you’ve read the Stats for Stacks column before, you may have noticed that in games where I have two stacks from the same team, I put an “and/or” and that’s so you can choose whether to play one of them, both separately or all of them together in a big parlay if you’re feeling really risky.
In this case, there is no “and.” That’s because, even though they’re facing the Penguins, the Columbus Blue Jackets recent form doesn’t strike me as world-beaters. In their last five games, the Blue Jackets have scored only nine goals, and in none of them, have they scored more than two. They’re for sure shooting, but the goals just aren’t there.
This has prompted coach Dean Evason to make the line changes, which started on Sunday, Nov. 10 when they played against the Anaheim Ducks and Fantilli was moved to the top line with Marchenko and Monahan, and then two days later, he was moved again now to the second line with Chinakov and Sillinger.
The play is based on a lot of factors, none of them which are actually quantifiable, but I’m rolling with it. First of all, Columbus is at home, where their record is much better than on the road (4-3-0 to 1-5-2) and they need the points, which can lead more minutes for the top two lines and more chances in net.
The second factor is their rival. The Pittsburgh Penguins rank dead last in goals against by strength at 5v5 with 52, they’re also the third worst team in the NHL in shots against per game with 32.7, while the Blue Jackets are fourth in shots for per game with 31.6. Plus, tonight for the Penguins, Tristan Jarry will be in net. He has three games this season, which are a 6-0 loss against the Rangers, a 6-3 win against the Canadiens and, a 6-5 OT win against the Sabres. So, 14 goals against in three games, for a GAA of 5.47 and a save percentage of .836.
So, a better shot selection as well as more rushes in net against a bad defense, and I can see either one of these stacks bringing the play home.
Play 2: Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club (9:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Jack Eichel (assist) + Pavel Dorofeyev point (+165 at Bet365)
This is the stack where I’m changing things a little. Eichel is the star of the Golden Knights, so his points prop is too expensive. The over/under for his points is actually 1.5. His assist prop to get just one is -170 and this is where it gets interesting, because out of the 25 points he has, ranking him at seventh in points scored, 20 have been assists. 80% of his points are just apples!
Given Mark Stone’s injury that kept him out of a few games, coach Bruce “Butch” Cassidy has had to make some line changes. In the last three games, they’ve tried out with Nicholas Roy, Alexander Holtz and a few other combinations for their top six. Last game, they had the Knight’s leading goalscorer Pavel Dorofeyev playing there to some better results.
Vegas’ strength lies more in the power play, where they have the second unit in the league behind the Winnipeg Jets, converting at a 32.6%. Adding to that, the Utah Hockey Club ranks 4th in penalties taken per 60, with 4.44. So, the Knights might find themselves with a man advantage on several different occasions this game where Eichel and co. can set up the play for a Dorofeyev one-timer and it cashes.
Other plays to be considered
Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club: Logan Cooley + Matias Maccelli (+350 at Bet365). This one is definitely a long-shot, so I don’t recommend playing it, other than just if you have the money and even if, lower the unit here. Maccelli and Cooley play on the second line with Hockey Club’s leading scorer Dylan Guenther and Cooley has 11 points, 9 of those being assists. They also skate on the PP2 and, Vegas certainly isn’t a fortress defensively.
Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche: Connor McMichael + Tom Wilson (+250 at Bet365). The usual suspects angle is here with Strome/Ovi, but I worry how will the Caps fare on the road tonight, especially that they’re traveling out west. If pressed to get into the Caps, second liners McMichael and Wilson are producing a ton of offense in each game, and their markets haven’t adjusted. Plus, they might be going against returning Colorado players Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin, who might be a little rusty, lacking chemistry and all that.