Stats for Stacks - Nov 13th
What a night yesterday!
The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.
What a night it was yesterday on the ice!
Out of the five plays yesterday, the two I had the most confidence going into the slate hit and, as for the other three, two also hit and the +450 long shot of Vladislav Namestnikov over 0.5 points and Cole Perfetti over 0.5 points didn’t come through only because Perfetti didn’t get on the scoresheet, even though there was a Namestnikov goal in what was a shellacking from the Jets to the Rangers.
For tonight, there are five games but with line changes due to multiple factors like injuries, performance of the players and, outright expensiveness of their points prop, there isn’t really much to choose from.
I do have two plays and some others to consider, in what’s to me a usual suspects kind of night.
Play 1: Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals (7:30 PM EST)
Stack(s) to play:
Dylan Strome + Aleksandr Ovechkin (+110 at Bet365)
and/or
Connor McMichael + Tom Wilson (+220 at Bet365)
You can play them as separate parlays, or just one play not the other. I’m playing them as separate parlays.
Strome and Ovechkin are part of the first line and PP1. McMichael and Wilson are part of the second line and the other part of the PP1 that’s rounded up by defenseman John Carlson.
In the top five point scorers for the Capitals, these four make up the list with all of them having double-digit points. Their line stats are absurd, with McMichael, Wilson and Dubois having an xGoals for per 60 of 4.1 in lines that have played +100 minutes. Not far behind them, you find Ovechkin, Strome and Protas with 3.44. As I’ve mentioned in a few other Stacks columns where I’ve played Washington, they lead the NHL in 5v5 goals with 45.
The biggest downside with playing Washington is their atrocious power play percentage, ranking 30th in the league, barely above the Anaheim Ducks and the Boston Bruins. Fixing the issues in man-advantage situations, which head coach Spencer Carbery attributes to poor zone entries and recovery of the puck, is easier as the season goes on, and their power play numbers should definitely get better.
Even though the price is half than the McMichael + Wilson pairing, I’d take Strome + Ovi with more a little bit more confidence, given that in all of Ovechkin’s goals this season, Strome has had an assist. Plus, the contributions of Protas in that line are not to be underestimated, with the Belarusian having 5 goals and 8 assists for 13 points total. So, there could be a Protas goal assisted by Strome and Ovechkin, and the play hits.
Toronto turns to Joseph Woll in net, a more than solid goaltender this season, with a .905 save percentage and a 2.27 GAA. He would like to show a good performance to see if he can take over the starting job from Stolarz. However, the Maple Leafs are going to play their fourth game in 5 days, traveling today from Ottawa to Washington, so we might see some tired legs out there.
Play 2: Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche (10:00 PM EST)
Stack to play: Adrian Kempe + Anze Kopitar (+120 at Bet365)
Even though the Washington stack is one I like and have played a lot, this is the one I mostly meant when saying usual suspects kind of night. It feels like whenever there are goals by the Kings, Kempe and Kopitar are a part of them.
Along with Laferriere, who leads the Kings in goals, Kempe and Kopitar have a combined 32 points total. Kopitar, in particular, has a point per game average of 1.06.
The Kings coach has changed the third member of that top line multiple times, slotting in Kevin Fiala, Alex Laferriere, both Trevors, Moore and Lewis, as well as different other players to find the best combination, but the fact is that Kempe and Kopitar are the heart and soul of this offense.
Tonight they’re going against a Colorado Avalanche who seems to be stronger with news of Valeri Nichushkin being eligible for reinstatement today, Gabe Landeskog doing some more work at practice and with Artturi Lehkonen already in the lineup.
Alexander Georgiev will look to have a third consecutive win and another good performance. In his last three starts, he has allowed a total of seven goals with four of those coming against the high-powered offense of Carolina.
The angle for this play is basically familiarity. While the last five games between these two teams, the Avalanche leads the series 3-2, in three of those games, both Kempe and Kopitar have been a part of the goals, whether that’s scoring them or just assisting them.