Stats for Stacks - Nov 12th

Tonight, I'm going against my team. Would you look at that?

The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.

There are some very juicy matchups tonight, with two Canadian battles going on as the Ottawa Senators play the Toronto Maple Leafs in another edition of the Battle of Ontario, and the Calgary Flames travel to Vancouver to play the Canucks for the second time this season. Then, we have two battles between four of the top teams when the Winnipeg Jets look to notch their 15th win in Madison Square Garden against the New York Rangers, and the New Jersey Devils take on reigning Stanley Cup Champions, the Florida Panthers.

Elsewhere, we have the Bruins facing the Blues in a matchup of teams that are struggling to score, the Islanders going to Edmonton to try and steal a win from the Oilers and, finally, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Seattle Kraken duke it out in what I think will be a fun matchup.

With all these games in line, and the aforementioned rules, I have set a number of stack plays that I think are really interesting.

Play 1: Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers (7:00 PM EST)

Stack(s) to play: Mark Scheifele + Gabriel Vilardi (+125 at Bet365) and/or Cole Perfetti + Vladislav Namestnikov (+450 at Bet365)

I hate going against my teams. However, this is a spot where I think I have to.

The Jets are just good all around. Defensively, the Rangers are not.

The Rangers are 9-3-1 sure, but that’s been on the backs of two great goaltenders, like perennial Vezina candidate Igor Shesterkin and incredible backup Jonathan Quick. Per game, the New York Rangers are allowing 32.5 shots on goal putting them as the fourth worst team in that category. Conversely, the Winnipeg Jets are sixth in shots on goal per game, with 31.3. At even strength, their top two defense pairings; Trouba + Miller and Fox + Lindgren have an xGoals against per 60 of 3.19 and 3.56.

Enter the Winnipeg Jets. The team that’s taken the league by storm is also ranking in the top spots in several offensive categories, aside from the one mentioned. Let’s take a look:

• Goals for per game? First with 4.47

• Power play percentage? First, converting at a 41.9% rate

• Goals at 5v5? Tenth with 35. This one is not as great, but they’re still top ten.

As far as their lines, they’re not touching anything because why would they? With the kind of record they have, 14-1-0 by the way, it’s wise to follow the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” adage.

All of this brings us to the plays. I’ve listed out two which can be played separately, or just one. The first one is the top line with center Mark Scheifele and winger Gabriel Vilardi being the choices. This one is a bit of a safe one at +125 given they spend most time on the ice together with Kyle Connor, who’s 13th in points scored in the NHL. They’re also part of the first power play unit who, on the last three games, has spent 56.9% on the ice with the man advantage.

However, we cannot sleep on Cole Perfetti and Vladislav Namestnikov. They’re the second line that’s completed by Nikolaj Ehlers, a man who has at least a point on three of his last five games. Perfetti and Namestnikov also skate together on PP2. So, the correlation and the chances are there, either by combining with Ehlers at even strength or getting into the PP2 and doing some damage there. This one at +450 is worth a long shot, with a little bit less of a regular unit.

Play 2: Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues (8:00 PM EST)

Stack to play: Pavel Zacha + David Pastrnak (+150 at Bet365)

Betting on the Bruins right now, for all intents and purposes, might seem like a bad choice. They’re bottom sixth in GF/GP with 2.50 and they have the second worst power play unit, converting only 12.50% of their chances. The only unit that’s worse than them funnily enough is the team they face today.

This has all the makings for a low-scoring game. On these types of games the best option is to go with the top player(s). For Boston, that’s David Pastrnak who, despite Boston’s struggles, has still managed to rack up 14 points total, with 6 goals and 8 assists. Whatever offense Boston can create goes through him.

Zacha and Pastrnak had been playing for the past three games with Tyler Johnson, and that line had scored 3 goals, all of which had involvements from both Czech players. They clearly have chemistry together, so if anybody is to score in this game, they’re the ones with the best odds to do so.

What might help Boston in this game is the fact that St. Louis is going with Jordan Binnington in net, a goaltender who Boston certainly has a favorable history of scoring. In their last five meetings, Binnington has been in net three times, with Boston scoring 12 goals total and Pastrnak having at least a point in each of those meetings.

Other plays to be considered:

Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks (10:00 PM EST) - Pius Suter + J.T. Miller (+175 at Bet365)

With Brock Boeser being out, it’s Suter who has moved to the top line with J.T. Miller and to the first power play unit. Vancouver is average in both PP% and GF/GP, with a 3.23 goals for per game and a 19.5% power play conversion percentage.

Calgary has to travel today to Vancouver after their game last night against the Los Angeles Kings and, although the sample size is virtually non-existent (they’ve only been in a back-to-back situation once), their H2H is more in favor of Vancouver, as they’ve won three of their last five and in the last four games, they have scored at least four goals each.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs (7:00 PM EST) - Drake Batherson + Tim Stützle (+150 at Bet365)

A power play angle here. Ottawa boasts the fourth best power play unit in the league, only behind the Jets, the Avalanche and, the Golden Knights. Toronto, on the other hand, is the fourth team that draws the most penalties per game with 4.48 and, while they have the eighth best penalty kill unit, the Senators could find themselves with a man up repeatedly, cracking Stolarz and getting on the scoresheet.

This is basically a new line, given Josh Norris was moved to the Brady Tkachuk / Ridley Greig line for their last game against Boston on Saturday, and Stützle was paired with Drake Batherson and Claude Giroux. So, the advanced metrics aren’t really there. However, it’s not like they’re strangers to each other, as in the last two games against the Maple Leafs, there’s been goals where both of them were a part of the play.