Stats for Stacks - Nov 11th

Stats, meets Stacks. Let's make some points today, huh?

The Stats for Stacks series is one I’ll create regularly during the hockey season, and it is as straightforward as it sounds. Out of all the games, I’ll go through the ones I find the most interesting and select two players that skate together in the same line and ideally in the 1st power play unit. The objective being parlaying their points prop bet to get a plus money bet, and in some cases big money.

For tonight’s slate, there are five games with a banger closing out the night, as the 9-3-2 Golden Knights play host to the 10-3-0 Carolina Hurricanes. The San Jose Sharks start things off as they travel from New Jersey to Philadelphia to face the Flyers in what’s their second game of a 4-game stint on the East. At the same time, the Penguins will take on the Stars trying to see if they can pick things off, then the LA Kings will travel to the mighty Saddledome where they’ll battle against an up and down Flames team, and then in a Central Division matchup, the Predators go into Colorado to try and get the dub off the Avalanche.

In what’s becoming the usual, I have two plays for tonight’s games each with a different angle and values.

Play 1: Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames (9:30 PM EST)

Stack to play: Mikael Backlund + Blake Coleman (+320 at Bet365)

I’ll start out with the riskier, higher-value one.

Calgary started their season out so strong that it’s a pity what is happening. After scoring six past the Canucks, six past the Flyers and four past the Oilers, they have been shutout twice, and have only gotten past the 3-goal mark one time and it was in a penalty shootout against the Pittsburgh Penguins, so you might say, that one barely counts.

That, and the fact that they’re going against the Kings, a team that’s ninth in the GA/GP stat column with 2.88 has a sportsbook like Bet365 paying plus money for six of the nine guys of the Flames they have listed.

So, what’s the reasoning for this play? The value. +320 for two guys that spend a lot of time on the ice and have the same numbers or better than guys in the top line, who are the favorites to score at least a point, is too good to pass up.

In the last games, Coleman has two goals and four assists for a total of six points, and Backlund has two goals and two assists for a total of four points. Their more advanced metrics tell the narrative that Backlund and Coleman have chemistry, so that’s why in the midst of line changes where Yegor Sharangovich has moved up to the top line and Connor Zary has been going up and down lines, Backlund and Coleman have stayed together.

If the slider is adjusted to lines that have played at least 50 minutes, we find that Backlund and Coleman have played with both Zary and Coronato and, with both of them, the xGoals for per 60 is 2.55. Their Fenwick% gives us a 56.6% with Coronato and a 50.4% with Zary.

As far as time on ice spent together, both of them skate on the second line and on the second power play unit. They’re also a part of the first penalty kill unit and, while the odds of any team scoring a shorty on a game are high, they at least have the opportunity to do so and make this play hit.

They can definitely score and are playing at home. With a little bit of puck luck, this play comes home.

Play 2: Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche (9:00 PM EST)

Stack to play: Steven Stamkos + Ryan O’Reilly (+165 at Bet365)

The Preds could be figuring things out.

This Nashville Predators team has got to be, in this young season, the biggest letdown of them all. With so many hopes after an insane offseason where they brought in guys like Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault and two-time Stanley Cup champion Steven Stamkos, them being last on the Central Division is just sad.

They’re a bottom five team in GF/GP with only 2.47 goals for per game, and dead last in goals scored at 5v5 with 16. These trends explain why they’ve played 3-7 to the under in their last 10, where they’ve only scored four goals or more in regulation time three times. However, one of them was against the team they’re facing today in the Colorado Avalanche, a game in which Stamkos got two points and O’Reilly one.

Stamkos has played little time on the first line with Forsberg and O’Reilly, so I’m not delving too much into that. The angle here is more focused on the power play. Even though as mentioned, the Predators are amongst the worst teams in terms of per game scoring, their power play sits at 11th in the league, with a 23.1% conversion rate. Looking at the other side of the power play matchup, the Colorado Avalanche’s penalty kill unit sits at fourth last, not what you want to be against a team that can certainly score with a man up.

The other part of my analysis is the goaltending. Tonight, the Avalanche are going with Georgiev in net. He can get better, as demonstrated by his performance against the top team in the league, the Winnipeg Jets, where he allowed only goal but I’m not buying it. His stats for the season have him as the tenth worst goaltender, with a save percentage of .851 and a GAA of 4.04.

The lineup with the new players might be one of the reasons why Nashville has started this season slow, but that can only get better with time as players start to gel and have more chemistry together. Having said that, for this play the special teams is where it’s at.

A Stammer one timer off an O’Reilly assist and the play hits. Don’t need no more, Preds.